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From this month’s issue:
No country better illustrates the three phases of energy transition than the United States, which was damaged initially by the energy shock, then struggled and stagnated for five years, and is now starting recover. An excellent way to measure this story has been to follow energy expenditures, which rose sharply on oil’s initial repricing, crashed during the crisis, rose again during the early part of the recovery, and are now falling. | see: US Annual Energy Expenditures as a Percent of GDP 2004-2014. The United States has been busily constructing new wind and solar capacity, and taking advantage of its very cheap and plentiful supply of natural gas. All the while, Americans have been dumping their demand for oil—which remains expensive despite the recent seasonal decline from $100 to $80. Accordingly, energy expenditures as a percent of GDP are in a four year downtrend, and at 8% are back to levels last seen in 2005. A reminder: upfront costs for the deployment of wind and solar can be high, but the ROI starts immediately and actually increases as time moves forward. The US is now vying with China to be the biggest world mover in the buildout of wind+solar. This pathway will pay increasing dividends as time progresses. We should expect the downtrend in energy expenditures to continue, with gains distributed to the US economy in the form of wealth and GDP.
Also in this month’s issue:
The model portfolio as of 31 October 2014 is down – 4.26% since the inception date, April 1, 2013. The portfolio remains fully invested. There are no changes this month to the portfolio’s composition.