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This month’s publication, Solar’s Rise, Nuclear’s Demise, forecasts the extraordinary gains solar power will make, in the lead up to the year 2020. Meanwhile, as solar takes an increasing portion of market share in global electricity markets, nuclear’s decade long stagnation is set to continue:
On Solar: Over the past 5 years, growth of power consumption from solar has run at a compound annual growth rate of 63.2%. Solar can easily maintain its current fast growth rate through the year 2020. Assuming this is the case, and also projecting strong annual growth in overall global power consumption at 3.4% per year, solar will be making a meaningful contribution to total global power supply by 2020.
On Nuclear: For the past 15 years, the contribution to global power supply from nuclear has been roughly flat, between 2400 and 2700 TWh per year. In 2011, its contribution of 2649 TWh was nearly identical to its 2655 TWh contribution, in 2001. However, with the steady growth in total power consumption, this has meant nuclear’s share has actually been in long-term decline.
The June issue also includes the first changes to the Model Portfolio:
The macro outlook most appropriate for the model portfolio, therefore, is of a Spring correction in markets that could be mild in price, and which carries onward through a choppy trading range throughout the summer. As TerraJoule.us goes to press, the correction in Japan has deepened further. It appears the Nikkei is leading the way to the long expected pullback, in global stock indexes. Per the discussion in last month’s issue, it was anticipated that Summer would be a time to start building positions.
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