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This month’s publication, Oil’s Ultimate Fate, covers the structural shift as oil consumption continues to migrate from the West to the developing world. As this trend nears completion, oil will finally be ready for its next, major repricing:
Oil’s quiet period has been composed of declining OECD demand, a hardening of the floor of oil prices, increased supplies of high-cost, marginal oil, and the almost silent shift of demand from West to East. Non-OECD economic growth, however, has not quite been strong enough to cause oil prices to breakout to the upside. Indeed, weak OECD economies and oil demand have provided just enough counterweight to keep oil prices from taking off. Oil’s quiet period, therefore, has seen oil trapped in a very tight range, unable to move lower because of marginal costs—and—unable to move higher because of continuing affordability issues in the OECD.
The May issue also includes an analysis of Japan’s worsening energy-balances, as the country’s currency debasement strategy meets up with soaring volumes of imported LNG:
While hedge fund managers focus on Japan’s debt dynamics, they should monitor instead these fragile energy-balance dynamics for the trigger to Japan’s next crisis.
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