Never Nine Billion: August Issue of TerraJoule.us

Each issue of TerraJoule.us contains: a Main Essay, the Model Portfolio, the Data Brief, and a link to a Downloadable Podcast. Gregor Macdonald, Editor.

Readers may purchase each issue individually, through Ganxy.com: Purchase.

Or, readers may also take a 12 month subscription through Gumroad.com: TerraJoule.us Monthly eBook  Annual Subscription.

Podcast: This month’s podcast is for readers only.

Model Portfolio: There are changes to the model portfolio this month. Please see this month’s issue for details.

From this month’s issue:

Since the late 1990’s, Andrew Revkin of the New York Times has been helming a column (now a blog, really), called Dot.Earth. The premise of the blog has long been that world population will surpass nine billion. For sure, global population will continue to grow form its present 7.4 billion in absolute terms. And, the associated problems that will come with that expansion—everything from carbon output to the decline of available arable land and water—will worsen before a gentle improvement (in absolute terms) takes hold.

What is significant now, however, is that the world’s five most populous nations (previously mentioned) which represent nearly 50% of total global population, have a weighted average fertility rate that has fallen below 2.0. Compiling fertility data from myriad sources, TerraJoule.us finds the weighted average fertility rate for China, India, US, Indonesia, and Brazil has fallen to 1.92. Whether or not the data you, or others, may choose shows slightly different rates for these top five countries, the fact remains that the trends in the two most populous countries—China and India—are clear.

Interestingly, however, some still make the case that high fertility rates in Africa—especially in countries like Nigeria —pose a continuing risk that global population will begin a new rate of advance. That is just wrong. Africa’s population stands at 1.1 billion, and is characterized by very high fertility rates. What we’ve learned is that high fertility rates are at risk of falling, not rising. Indeed, a core thesis of The Gates Foundation is that upgrading health and access to electricity is the trigger for high fertility rates to decline. As the foundation correctly points out, it is a myth that saving lives leads to overpopulation. In fact, the opposite is true. And as electricity, technology, mobile communications, and health care are more broadly distributed in Africa, the final remaining set of high fertility rates will fall.

Accordingly, it is the position of TerraJoule.us, that the trajectory of global population growth to the year 2050 indicates a peak that never quite reaches 9 billion. If this is the case, the slow growth documented by TerraJoule.us will become entrenched for decades to come.

“TerraJoule.us eBook – Never Nine Billion – August 2015” by Gregor Macdonald – Editor on Ganxy